Recent financial market gyrations notwithstanding, the US is likely not on the cusp of recession. Nonetheless, the economy is expected to lose momentum in H2 2024 as high prices and elevated interest rates sap domestic demand. Real GDP growth rose by an unexpected 2.8 percent quarterly annualized in Q2 2024 (from 1.4 percent in Q1 2024), led by stronger domestic demand and a surge in inventories. But there were some signs of weakness, especially as consumers dialed back on services spending, which has been a key contributor to real GDP growth over the last two years. Consumers and businesses are likely to continue cutting spending and investments ahead,  suggesting economic growth decelerated to 0.6 percent annualized in Q3 2024.

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